Call me a pessimist if you’d like…

There was an interesting challenge on Matthew Gross’s blog asking bloggers to predict the outcome of the election. Since he didn’t put any qualifications on it, here are my totally unqualified brand-new-blogger guesses on it:

My gut feeling is that it’s going to be very, very close. But put me down for 275 Kerry, 263 Bush, with Colorado split.

Since there was a request for a popular vote split, I’m going to guess that neither side has a majority, but that there will be a slightly bigger edge for Kerry than Bush had in 2000, so to again guess wildly: 49.3% Kerry, 49% Bush, leaving 1.7% for Nader and other.

OK, there’s my guess, and I do think Kerry’s going to win.

Let me give one other pessimistic guess, though: that we’re not going to have a definite President-Elect on the morning of November 3rd. I sincerely hope that we don’t get another Florida-like situation, and don’t expect another mess of that magnitude. But I’ll be very surprised if it’s not close enough that something contentious will delay a definite answer until at least sometime during the day on the 3rd.