Election results as of my bedtime:
Bush 249
Kerry 242
Iowa count suspended until tomorrow
Ohio is possibly contestable, and argued too close to call until the overseas and provisional ballots are counted… a 10-day window by Ohio law, if the pundits on TV are right.
If Bush sweeps the remaining states (NM, NV, WI) and takes Iowa tomorrow, Ohio ceases to be an issue. That would be a 296-242 victory for Bush, and just at my outside guess of “One Florida” for how strong a victory either side might get… but not really what I’d call “close,” and various folks on RASSF are entitled to an “You told me so” from me.
In the more likely event that Kerry takes Wisconsin, or Wisconsin ends up within the margin of litigation, well… we’ll have to see how the the Democrats decide to play it, and see if Ohio is a clear victory or another squeaker. Or if it looks like Florida 2000, with significant fraud.
The one point I genuinely worry about is if WI ends up in the margin of litigation, and either the Democrats decide to fight a slight Republican victory there, or the Republicans decide to fight there to preempt any contest in Ohio. I think the country could take one contested state this time. Two would worry the heck out of me. Blood in the streets? No, but bad nonetheless.
Effing Bush.